Current and future agroclimate conditions in Poland in perspective of climate change
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| Authors: | Zbigniew Szwejkowski1, Leszek Kuchar2, Ewa Dragańska1, Iwona Cymes1, Ireneusz Cymes1 1University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Department of Water, Climate and Environmental Management, ul. Plac Łódzki 1, 10-724 Olsztyn 2Department of Mathematics, Wrocław University of Environmental and Life Science, ul. Grunwaldzka 53, 50-357 Wrocław, Poland |
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| Abstract : | The paper is a compilation of results, which indicate the scale of possible changes of agroclimate that will occur as a result of the ongoing global warming on Polish territory. Calculations on the future meteorological elements were performed using WGENK weather generator. The 300 variants were obtained of possible annual weather courses dating to the beginning of the second half of this century, and corresponding annual indices of the A1 scenario developed by the IPCC (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). According to the local climate-factors, obtained data indicate that there are possible situations satisfying assumptions A1 main scenario, exceeding the current climate indicators in terms of temperature, radiation and precipitation, both downward and upward. Apart from this it is possible to greatly expend of the growing season as well as a higher frequency of certain adverse events such as frosts and drought periods. Due to the inability to accurately predict the weather in the perspective of decades and because the main indicators of climate can be realized locally in the form of multiple variants of weather on an annual agricultural production results are difficult to unambiguously determine. Agricultural productivity will certainly significantly be changed, but regardless of global change will have important local factors. |
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| Keywords : | global warming, agroclimate, Poland | ||||||||
| Language : | english | ||||||||