Predicting of blue lupine yields based on the selected climate change scenarios
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| Authors: | Krystyna Grabowska1, Aneta Dymerska1, Katarzyna Pożarska1, Jan Grabowski1 1University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Department of Water, Climate and Environmental Management, ul. Plac Łódzki 1, 10-724 Olsztyn |
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| Abstract : | The study examined the impact of weather factors on yielding of blue lupine cultivar Mirela in 1990-2008 and forecasted the yields for 2050-2060 using the weather-yield models and three climate change scenarios for Central Europe: GISS model E, HadCM3 and GFDL. The source material was the results of cultivar experiments and meteorological observations obtained from the COBORU research stations, situated in North-Eastern Poland. The analyses included the correlation and multiple progressive stepwise regression methods. The fitting of the models was evaluated with the coefficient of determination R2, adjusted coefficient of determination R2adj, standard estimation error and coefficient of determination R2pred calculated with the Cross Validation procedure. The significance of regression equations was determined by a F-Snedecor test. The selected equation was used to prediction the yielding of lupin in conditions of doubling CO2 content in the atmosphere. It was found that the impact of meteorological factors on the yielding of blue lupine was diversified depending on the location of the station. Most frequently, the yield was significantly influenced by temperature (maximum, average, minimum) in the beginning of growing seasons and also by precipitation in the period: the end of flowering – technical maturity. The studies demonstrated that the predicted climatic changes would exert a beneficial impact on lupin yielding. Simulated yields were higher than those observed in 1990-2008 and the most favourable scenario was HadCM3. |
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| Keywords : | lupin, yield, meteorological factors, climate change scenarios | ||||||||
| Language : | polish | ||||||||